They’re going to keep doing it because of all these milquetoast responses. Airspace violated, better fire up article 4 again and hold a vote to decide if we should have a meeting to decide what to do. That’ll really show the Russians who’s boss around here!
The only thing Putin respects is strength. All this pussyfooting is an invitation for him to keep walking over everyone.
Take a look at Turkey. Last time a Russian plane flew into their airspace in 2015 they disintegrated it. Guess how many times their airspace has been violated by Russia since?
If NATO does shoot down a plane, fuck is Putin going to do about it? He has his hands full in Ukraine as is, not like he can lose any more aircraft.
The framing that Putin is walking over the NATO states is what makes things look weak. You’re basically goading them to overreact instead of following protocol in these situations and showing restraint as needed. Small offenses are not worth making large mistakes over and it is unwise to be preoccupied with petty shows of power.